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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."